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The North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and its variability are examined in terms of the overturning in density space and diapycnal water mass transformation. The magnitude of the mean overturning is similar to the surface water mass transformation, but the density and properties of these waters are modified by diapycnal mixing. Surface waters are progressively densified while circulating cyclonically around the subpolar gyre, with the densest waters and deepest convection occurring in the Labrador Sea and Nordic Seas. The eddy-driven interaction between the convective interior and boundary currents is a key to the export of dense waters from marginal seas. Due to the multitude of pathways of dense waters within the subpolar gyre, as well as mixing with older waters, waters exiting the subpolar gyre have a wide range of ages, with a mean age on the order of a decade. As a result, interannual changes in water mass transformation are mostly balanced locally and do not result in changes in export to the subtropics. Only persistent changes in water mass transformation result in changes in export to the subtropics. The dilution of signals from upstream water mass transformation suggests that variability in export of dense waters to the subtropics may be controlled by other processes, including interaction of dense waters with the energetic upper ocean. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Atlantic overturning: new observations and challenges’. 

Abstract. The strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation(AMOC) at 26∘ N has now been continuously measured by the RAPIDarray over the period April 2004–September 2018. This record provides uniqueinsight into the variability of the large-scale ocean circulation,previously only measured by sporadic snapshots of basin-wide transport fromhydrographic sections. The continuous measurements have unveiled strikingvariability on timescales of days to a decade, driven largely bywind forcing, contrasting with previous expectations about a slowly varyingbuoyancy-forced large-scale ocean circulation. However, these measurementswere primarily observed during a warm state of the Atlantic multidecadalvariability (AMV) which has been steadily declining since a peak in2008–2010. In 2013–2015, a period of strong buoyancy forcing by theatmosphere drove intense water-mass transformation in the subpolar NorthAtlantic and provides a unique opportunity to investigate the response ofthe large-scale ocean circulation to buoyancy forcing. Modelling studiessuggest that the AMOC in the subtropics responds to such events with anincrease in overturning transport, after a lag of 3–9 years. At45∘ N, observations suggest that the AMOC may already beincreasing. Examining 26∘ N, we find that the AMOC is no longerweakening, though the recent transport is not above the long-term mean.Extending the record backwards in time at 26∘ N with oceanreanalysis from GloSea5, the transport fluctuations at 26∘ N areconsistent with a 0- to 2-year lag from those at 45∘ N, albeit withlower magnitude. Given the short span of time and anticipated delays in thesignal from the subpolar to subtropical gyres, it is not yet possible todetermine whether the subtropical AMOC strength is recovering nor how theAMOC at 26∘ N responds to intense buoyancy forcing. 

Abstract. Human-induced atmospheric composition changes cause a radiative imbalance atthe top of the atmosphere which is driving global warming. This Earth energy imbalance (EEI) is the most critical number defining the prospects for continued global warming and climate change. Understanding the heat gain ofthe Earth system – and particularly how much and where the heat isdistributed – is fundamental to understanding how this affects warmingocean, atmosphere and land; rising surface temperature; sea level; and lossof grounded and floating ice, which are fundamental concerns for society.This study is a Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) concertedinternational effort to update the Earth heat inventory and presents anupdated assessment of ocean warming estimates as well as new and updated estimatesof heat gain in the atmosphere, cryosphere and land over the period1960–2018. The study obtains a consistent long-term Earth system heat gainover the period 1971–2018, with a total heat gain of 358±37 ZJ,which is equivalent to a global heating rate of 0.47±0.1 W m−2.Over the period 1971–2018 (2010–2018), the majority of heat gain is reportedfor the global ocean with 89 % (90 %), with 52 % for both periods inthe upper 700 m depth, 28 % (30 %) for the 700–2000 m depth layer and 9 % (8 %) below 2000 m depth. Heat gain over land amounts to 6 %(5 %) over these periods, 4 % (3 %) is available for the melting ofgrounded and floating ice, and 1 % (2 %) is available for atmospheric warming. Ourresults also show that EEI is not only continuing, but also increasing: the EEIamounts to 0.87±0.12 W m−2 during 2010–2018. Stabilization ofclimate, the goal of the universally agreed United Nations Framework Convention on ClimateChange (UNFCCC) in 1992 and the ParisAgreement in 2015, requires that EEI be reduced to approximately zero toachieve Earth's system quasi-equilibrium. The amount of CO2 in theatmosphere would need to be reduced from 410 to 353 ppm to increase heatradiation to space by 0.87 W m−2, bringing Earth back towards energybalance. This simple number, EEI, is the most fundamental metric that thescientific community and public must be aware of as the measure of how wellthe world is doing in the task of bringing climate change under control, andwe call for an implementation of the EEI into the global stocktake based onbest available science. Continued quantification and reduced uncertaintiesin the Earth heat inventory can be best achieved through the maintenance ofthe current global climate observing system, its extension into areas ofgaps in the sampling, and the establishment of an international framework forconcerted multidisciplinary research of the Earth heat inventory aspresented in this study. This Earth heat inventory is published at the German Climate Computing Centre (DKRZ, https://www.dkrz.de/, last access: 7 August 2020) under the DOIhttps://doi.org/10.26050/WDCC/GCOS_EHI_EXP_v2(von Schuckmann et al., 2020).